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“Residual claims make poor investments in times of secular deleverage, until they become dirt cheap.”

-- Mark Ungewitter, Charter Trust, New Hampshire

With today's technology, time and distance are meaningless. We can fly, Mary Poppins style, back and forward in time and across space. With auto translation programs, we can communicate in a variety of languages and read thousands of daily newspapers from around the globe, in auto summary. Digital video recorders give us the ability to capture vivid television images from anywhere that otherwise would disappear into ether...

 

 ... and I copy some of these for this Web site when it is important to make a point. For me, though, perspective comes from being a part-time resident of Switzerland . . . looking back at the United States as the Swiss and other Europeans see us. Being here -- and there -- helps me gain new ideas . . . sometimes early . . . and always thanks, in part, to patient friends who impart many of the insights I share with you.

[click here for Dean's Biography | contact info here]

*  New: Conclusions from the World Economic Forum *
Wednesday, January 27

Recent Video Commentary:
[requires RealPlayer - click here to download the latest free version]

Wednesday - January 20

Massachusetts Repeats the Message... Louder

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Wednesday - December 30

Christmas and New Years Hope for a Global Present: Principles

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Thursday - December 17

Ungovernability in the US

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Complete Video and Transcript Archive

Recent Items of Interest

Thursday, February 4

Conclusions from the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos 2010

Wednesday, January 27

World Economic Forum

Davos, Switzerland - January 2010

This important meeting is taking place now in the small resort village of Davos.  Three thousand world and business leaders join together to discuss and perhaps decide on some action to deal with the world's problems.  This year finance will seem to dominate the talks.  Through the generosity of the organizers, many of the talks are webcast; this year the webcasts are in HD and add to the "almost there" impression.  I'll be joining most of them, albeit electronically.

Friday, January 22

Radio interview with John Budden for Ottawa Radio.

Part 1 - Part 2

Wednesday, January 20

Interview with Susan Cragin, Concord (NH) Monitor

Friday, December 4

China Has Started to Speak: America Needs To Listen...
Very Carefully

A very insightful friend, Ken MacWilliams, sent these observations. They are so much on the mark, so important... critical even... that I asked his permission to share them with my friends. They may be the most important citation I have seen this year... perhaps longer.

Ken is a longtime friend who has shared with me parallel positions in finance and paths through Russia and elsewhere. He is astute in connecting dots to make sense of clues missed by others. And he is so "right on" here and in many of his other comments that I asked, and received, his permission to bust through his preferred modest privacy.

Wednesday, November 11

The Real Deal

An important and more specific follow-up paper to A Way Forward that we have presented twice... on paper and most recently at the Contrary Opinion Forum. Although we wrote it with a long-term objective in mind, it does seem to have a timely dimension. Each member of the team holds strong opinions on the markets and these opinions may diverge on individual assets classes today but converge on the unfolding of new economic history and the growing centrality of gold and the importance of the Dow/Au ratio in particular.

Monday, October 26

[Updated Wednesday, November 25]

Contrary Opinion Forum, Fall 2009

Contrary Opinion Forum, Fall 2009 presentation by Walter Deemer, Mark Ungewitter, Kate Welling (interviewer) and John Budden aka Prof Nicholai Kondratieff (died 1938)... and me... first edit about 90 mins. This is an update of "A Way Forward", a paper we published almost a year ago.

Thursday, September 24

There is a new Pan-Tilt-Zoom camera at Sunapee (sorry, requires ActiveX, so Internet Explorer only for the time being), and a new camera in Weesen showing a set of 8 scenes updating every 5 minutes.

Thursday, August 27

Golden Wedding Anniversary

Golden Wedding Anniversary: Klari and Alfred Farha, Zurich, 25 August 09.

Wedding video (45 min., 178 MB. format wmv)) prepared by Heini Feichtinger.

Monday, August 3

Complexity Digest Improves

Congratulations to Carlos Gershenson of the University of North America/Mexico at the seven month mark since he took the editorial reins from the late Dr Gottfried Mayer. You can see improved content and style. Clearly Carlos and his colleagues are putting effort into the project. It sparkles... a noble way to grasp the content.

Tuesday, June 30

The Zurich Chess Club Jubilee

The Zurich Chess Club will be celebrating its Jubilee in August with an international tournament. As before, I'm a minor sponsor in the growing attraction of chess for young people and online presentation. This story sets the background for the tournament which will be held in the Hauptbahnhof Zurich.

Saturday, June 13

Adventure Capitalist
June 10, 2009: You can listen to John Budden's Business@Night interview with Dean LeBaron; Founder of Batterymarch Financial Management by visiting BeEarly’s Home Page: http://www.BeEarly.com ; Top and Center of the page

Saturday, April 11

Statement on the Major Impact of Accounting Standards

In the spirit of "I wish I had said that", my longtime friend, Ken Macwilliams, has highlighted the importance of real market accounting standards rather than potentially vague formulaic. He and I worked together in the Soviet Union/Russia developing valuations when there were no markets to guide us. We know the slippery slopes that competing interests introduce; today the dominant one seems to be to inflate bank reserves and do so with minimal reliance on congressional action or oversight. Ken points out how well-intended government action can produce... yes, unintended consequences. 

Sunday, March 22

Memorial Service for Dr Gottfried Mayer

Founding Editor Complexity Digest, Taipei, Taiwan (1954-2009)

Memorial Service

Eulogy - Dean LeBaron

Memorial message - Dr Karl Newell, Penn State

Stephanie's Sketchbook and family photos

Friday, March 13

Jon Stewart takes on Jim Cramer 

Jon Stewart takes Jim Cramer and by implication all analysts to task for missing the bubble and exploiting it to our benefit.

Thursday, March 5

Explanation of the market bubble and housing crisis by Jon Stewart.

Monday, February 23

“A Way Forward” Forum

We have a new forum do discuss and develop the ideas in our paper, here introduced by Walter Deemer:

Dean LeBaron, Mark Ungewitter and I wrote “A Way Forward” in November in response to an invitation from the Financial Analysts Journal to comment on the “new era.” We looked back for a couple of centuries, integrating technical, economic, and fundamental inputs, and relied on a healthy measure of assertions we felt were necessary when venturing into entirely new ground.

FAJ, in its wisdom, rejected the article, but the paper enjoys a lively underground circulation; readers are groping, as we are, for answers in a new era, and we hope we might have provided some guidance. In that spirit we have opened a forum where you can speak to us, to comment on things you wish to amplify or to disagree, and where together we'll hopefully come to better answers than we have so far. We invite you to join us at our Way Forward Forum.

Saturday, February 14

A Way Forward

Research paper with two friends and Weeden interview on the current financial situation.

Davos Update, Friday, January 30

Report from Davos on Day Two:

1. The US is the whipping boy of the world with almost no business and government leader there to respond. One foreign minister even asked the US to apologize to the world for its action. Others were satisfied to condemn or to hint at blame for particular Americans...  Putin even named Michael Dell sitting on the stage with him.

2. In addition to the meeting webcasts, there is a rich resource in interviews, social media and Ideas Lab here.

my books

Mao, Marx & and the Market
Capitalist Adventures in Russia and China, 

Dean LeBaron's
Treasury of Investment Wisdom,

and

Dean LeBaron's
Book of
Investment Quotations

are now available in print form, 

published by by John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

 

Two Lakes

Pan/tilt webcam at Sunapee

This new cam was set up by Chris Gmuer in Switzerland and organized on the lake by Jim Bradley. The cam location is on the east shore of Lake Sunapee (New Hampshire... USA) looking west. You can pan/tilt/zoom and turn on the fish eye for a wide view of the lake. Enjoy!

Pan/tilt webcam at Weesen

Webcams have been updated at both locations to new pan-tilt cameras. Each site includes links for area weather and information.

The Weesen scenes are from my terrace overlooking the village of Weesen, SG and toward the east along the road extending up to the Amden resort areas and across the Walensee to Walenstadt. The lake is fiord-like, the deepest in Switzerland, and ringed by mountains on all sides.

Here's a 360° view from the middle of Lake Sunapee

Complexity Digest

There have been many changes in the management and hosting of Complexity Digest recently, and my involvement has ended. The editor's burdens are being assumed by Carlos Gershenson who has been writing for the publication since 2001. The publisher is the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), the leading university in Latin America, and its new Center of Complexity Sciences. This exciting group will impact complexity both through its own research and in acting as a source of inspiration for others in its publication efforts. Publication will be on a bi-weekly basis and you can expect to find Complexity Digest continue to be useful in your work.

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