Dean LeBaron

Adventure Capitalist

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Forecasting the Next Long Wave

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Forecasting the Next Long Wave

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My task for the next three years: forecast the next Long Wave

1. technicians (my friends) are dangerous… datamining to the wrong cycle;
2. monetary inflation, economic deflation
3. rise of a new demographic category: Preciariats… those who feel left out of something.. anything.. wherever they might be;
4. immovable capital destruction (read… bad debts) faster than it is replaced… and then with high volatile substitute.
5. complex, unknowable debt chain
6. impact of 100+ yr age expectation… how long to work, at what, and how long to retire, support by whom?
7. machine translation
8. countries mean little, culture means everything
9. communication is temporary, erases… good for X time

10. None of the foregoing works… per Kondratieff.

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