|
|
|
|
Ten Questions Intro: We always have ten critical questions the answers to which will determine success/failure, market/business strategy and perhaps, with the right questions, culture. Contrarians prefer questions that have a unanimous answer (stocks have higher returns than bonds---time is continuous and invariant----equity returns can greatly exceed ROI ). Next we prefer questions others are not asking. And finally are the questions that are imponderables…if we know the answer, it is the wrong question. 1. Impact of the Internet: empowers individuals, enhances networks, increases commo, lowers costs (and reduces people). Direct to my web cast. 2. Do we remain a unipolar world: is globalization a cover for US imperialism like the Cominterm? Do we want to be involved with the world? One candidate proclaims US should unilaterally abrogate treaties that are inconvenient for the US. Possible that... 3. ...economic slices horizontally…networked…through the political structure. A matrix. A Chinese entrepreneur may have more in common with his Taiwanese counterpart than each to his own govt. Produces a CAS. 4. Are our post WWII institutions suited for this world: IMF, UN, Central Banks, WTO? Or do they hinder adaptability? Example of the EURO…leading countries of Europe agree to link their currencies and they go down 30% in 18 months. BIS..Bank of Intl Settlements, Basel could be employed for the EURO. 5. Does people's capitalism work in declining markets: current ethic is that gov't fixes everything..FRB, Oil Shock, health care 6. Is US like Japan: Are we in our boom, being mimicked? Is it durable? 7. Technology: early stage…biotech, organic electronics, artificial intelligence/life. 8. China: all by itself…it shakes the world 8. US as trade deficit, service based economy: how long can we live on the deposits of foreigners? Can the financial system have a long-term soft adjustment? Do we see any signs? Trade used to lead finance, now the other way around. 9. Rogue wars: empowerment of small units.small countries. Niche politics. Unit of one. 10. Cycles: are they dead (HBS does not teach Business Cycles any more)? Which ones? Everyone will have their own scores…I try to be an optimist because it is my nature, because contrarians find good things in bad places (Russia) and because I'm a product of the post battle of Midway bull market. But it is hard. Books.
|