After a lifetime attempting to anticipate global investment, I have now decided we left the long positive wave that ensued since the Battle of Midway, benefiting the scarce few like us, and entered the choppy, VIX-sensitive grope for what’s next for our grandchildren. We might pretend we have a few glimpses: global disintegration, low growth and moderate profits, scrappy cultures, markets disconnect from assets they are intended to reflect, institutions we built at huge effort crumble like the Berlin Wall, we’ll wonder if machines should vote and discover, to our dismay, that they have been and we wonder if as HBS graduates we have done enough on our earthly watch. Will our successors do better at disruptive change or better hedge funds?
For my part, I’ve uncovered a strategy that seems to have adapted to uncertainty more than traditional optimism and looks to needs for liquidity, again globally, more than relative performance, the Prince of my earlier years. Although still a resident of everywhere, I note that Donna and I slip steadily toward a warmer partiality..with enough change from year to year to keep us exposed to what passes for newness for slower minds. And we have added a cruising boat to the mix of two Swiss classics, Boesch, and two airplanes, Piaggio, for high altitude, high-speed comfort with me not directly at the controls… now that I’m reminded I soloed 70 yrs. ago. To maintain a discipline of my attitudes over time, I keep a tweet record on my website…that started in the late ’80s but backward looking is essential for humility but not for joy. dl April 8, 2019